Italy: from Covid-19 to economic crisis

Italy: from Covid-19 to economic crisis
Police officers and soldiers check passengers leaving from Milan main train station, Italy, Monday, March 9, 2020. Italy took a page from China’s playbook Sunday, attempting to lock down 16 million people — more than a quarter of its population — for nearly a month to halt the relentless march of the new coronavirus across Europe. Italian Premier Giuseppe Conte signed a quarantine decree early Sunday for the country’s prosperous north. Areas under lockdown include Milan, Italy’s financial hub and the main city in Lombardy, and Venice, the main city in the neighboring Veneto region. (AP Photo/Antonio Calanni)

The Italian Government decided to lock down the entire country to contrast the spread of Covid-19 and the rise of death. The decision to force most of the Italians at home might have a serious impact on the Italian small and medium entrepreneurs who are the core of the national economic system and might bring the country into a deep financial and economic crisis.

On March 9th, 2020, the Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte informed the nation about the adoption of a new decree which imposes restricted measures for the entire country. The decreed titled ‘Restiamo a casa’ (stay at home), as the hashtag that many Italian citizens and politicians used recently on Social Network to support the government policy to contrast the spread of Covid-19, limits the Italian citizens to avoid any kind of movement from their homes unless for those people who must go to work, pharmacies, supermarkets, and hospitals.

In an atmosphere of police state where the Italians must bring with them a document released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs where they affirm the nature of their movement when police checks them, the governmental decree allows bar and restaurant to work from 6 am to 6 pm respecting some specific rules (for instance, every customer should stay 1 meter far from the others) although according to the same decree the Italian citizens are not allowed to go to these places. A clear strategy to evade the request of financial support or compensation from the owners of bar and restaurants who are hugely affected by the Covid-19 and the Government’s restricted measures.

Why this decision? Because the Italian Government failed to contrast the spread of Covid-19 at the beginning when a few cases were registered in the North of Italy (Lombardia and Veneto). The entire month of February media played a decisive role with fake news, alarming the Italian audience with sensational but unrealistic articles and denouncing an imminent ‘plague’ while political opposition tried to exploit Government’s inadequacy for their political agenda. The result was a climate of panic when at the beginning of March the Government adopted a decree which imposed restricted measures in the Italian region of Lombardia and hundreds of peoples assaulted the railway station in Milan to escape from the North to the South. Also, in this situation, local municipalities and the Government were not able to contrast the crisis and to avoid the spread of Covid-19 in the south where many people from the North found shelter. Consequently, the Council of Ministers decided to adopt another decree which locks down entire Italy.

Furthermore, the entire Italian health system is close to collapse because the national hospitals do not have enough places for all the people affected by Covid-19. As many doctors and virologists explained, containing the virus is a primary necessity for Italy because the country lacks intensive rooms for those patients who are facing serious consequences of the virus. Undeniably, in the last decade, several governments which have ruled in Italy have continuously cut the investments in the Italian health system for an amount of around 37 billion euro.

Negligence of previous and the current governments, the incapacity of facing the spread of Covid-19 when it was a menace only in the North, and carelessness for the small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are at the base of the current governmental decree which seems to be a condemn for the Italian economic system. In fact, in Italy SMEs are the core of the productive chain, employ 82% of the Italian workers, and represent 92% of the active enterprises in the country. The impossibility to work because of the restrictions is enormously affecting SMEs, particularly those involved in tourism, education, and services, but the Government has not yet presented a plan to financially support them and avoid their failure and the increase of unemployment. Same story for those entrepreneurs who must pay at the end of the month employees’ salaries, mortgages, suppliers, and rents without any revenues (or a modest one) because of the restrictions.

In many foreign media, the Italian situation has been described as the most critical and unstable, worse than in China. The Italian Government has done nothing else to contrast this idea and the result might be the lack of trust of foreign investors. Without foreign direct investments (FDIs) and joint venture, the Italian SMEs and the national economy might face a deep internal crisis considering that since 2008/2009 Italy has not been able to recover from the financial crisis.

While the European Union appears to be divided on the financial and health strategy to face Covid-19, China is offering its support to the Italian government as confirmed by the phone talk between the Chinese State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi and the Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio held on March 10th, 2020, where the two parts discussed bilateral friendship in the fight against Covid-19. After the health crisis, Italy will need investments and international support and the Italian SMEs might look at Chinese investors as the solution to overcome financial problems and restore their activities. If Brussels will not show the will and ability to support the Italian economy, China could take advantage and increase its partnership with Italy, a country which plays a fundamental role in the Mediterranean Sea because of its strategic position and represents a vital element for the success of the 21st Maritime Silk Road promoted by Beijing.