Estimates Archives - Robert Lansing Institute

Intelligence failure: HAMAS had prepared for war and was waiting for the right opportunity, which came on October 7.

Since October 7, 2024, when Israel was caught off guard by a sudden and highly damaging attack from Hamas, more information has surfaced regarding why there was no prior warning…

March 15, 2024HAMAS, Israel, Yahya Sinwar

Conflict Estimates National Security

Iran will react or not after the killing of its general in Syria

When Imad Mughniyeh was killed in Damascus in February 2008, the reverberations of that execution extended beyond the region. It was not about a minor figure. Wherever he went, in…

December 28, 2023HAMAS, Iran, Israel, Palestine

Conflict Estimates Geopolitics

Estimations: Will Ethiopia and Eritrea start military conflict over Red Sea ports access

There are emerging fears that all the gains made five years ago toward Ethiopia and Eritrea peace could soon be in jeopardy. Prime Minister Abiy said that Ethiopia deserves a port on the Red Sea of…

November 17, 2023Eritrea, Ethiopia

Estimates National Security

NATO summit in Vilnius unlikely to avoid the issues of enlarging Alliance or nuclear safety

There are signs that Putin's entourage increasingly resorts to the rhetoric of nuclear or large-scale man-made disaster threats, as things are getting wrong for Moscow in its war in Ukraine.…

July 10, 2023NATO, nuclear weapons

Estimates Opinion

Will the French-German Proposal Finally End the Longest Conflict in the Balkans?

There was a general understanding reached during the previous meeting between Prime Minister Kurti and President Vucic in Brussels over contents of the Franco-German proposal, also known as the EU…

March 17, 2023Kosovo, Serbia

Estimates National Security Nonproliferation

Russia’s nuclear arsenal seems grossly exaggerated

There are well-grounded doubts as to whether Russia has got a combat-ready nuclear arsenal. There’s a good chance it makes the Kremlin speculate on nuclear blackmail, with threats to launch…

November 9, 2022nuclear weapons, Russia

Estimates National Security

Russia’s nuclear threats: risks and responsive options

Over the past week, the Russian high-rank politicians actively threatened to use nuclear weapons and hints at possibility to apply its nuclear doctrine to the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. In addition,…

September 28, 2022nuclear weapons, Russia

Estimates Governance

The rise and fall of Abazovic

The inauguration of the head of Serbian Orthodox Church in Montenegro, last year was a trigger for a non-confidence motion initiated by the then Deputy Prime Minister Dritan Abazovic, which…

August 12, 2022Montenegro, Serbia

Conflict Estimates Intelligence ops

Moscow fuels the Serbia-Kosovo border tensions

Russia and its satellites the region have unleashed a new war in the Balkans. Serbian President Vučić's statement about being attacked by Kosovo and the Balkans’ ‘denazification’ clearly echoes Russia’s…

August 1, 2022Kosovo, Russia, Serbia

Estimates Governance

What next Italy?

The government of Italian Prime Minister, Mario Draghi managed to gain confidence in the Senate on the evening of Wednesday 20 July, but was unable to stand up. The right-wing…

July 22, 2022Italy

Estimates